We're getting official T1 and T2 splits this year - woot, woot.
And with that, it's time for the annual prediction. But first, the excuses...
1. Swim - I'm feeling pretty good, but not as fast as last year. My shoulder injury at the end of last year kept me side-lined until March - overall swim volume is down. However, I swam pretty well in St. Andrews (salt water aided, plus perfect pack placement). I haven't swam much in my wetsuit lately this year, as the water has been warm enough to go without. Regardless of water temp on race day, I will be in the wetsuit - the extra speed is undeniable. I didn't have a great swim last year for some reason, so I will target to maintain that time.
2. T1 - Could be tricky this year with the new running track and nasty grass/weeds - add in sore feet (see run excuses below). I'll target the same time as last year.
3. Bike - Much less bike volume this year compared to past years. But overall, my 40K speed and endurance seems to be up to snuff. Crr will be up this year, as the roads have an extra year of wear and tear - however CdA will be down, as I have an improved helmet (Air attack shield) that I'm certain is more aero and better suited to my head down riding. Last year was pretty amazing conditions for the bike - I can't imagine a repeat - but if the conditions are right, I should be able to come close to last year's time.
4. T2 - Will the feet hold up? see run excuses below. I'll target the same time as last year.
5. Run - Will it even happen? Will I DNF? I've been battling Fat Pad Syndrome. Basically, running is okay, but I can't walk for 2 or 3 days afterwards 'cause it feels like someone's been smashing the heels and soles of my feet with a hammer. As a result, I haven't been running, and therefore no specific run fitness - I'll have to fake it to the finish line. Last year, I was on cloud 9 for the second half of the run, as I was confident I had a 2:30 finish time sewn up. I actually let up for the last 2k. I'm always gunning for 2:30, but I don't think I'll have the feet this year - so I am predicting a 50 to 52 minute run.
What does that look like:
Ouch, 2:32:40 - I'll try and find those 2 minutes and 40 seconds somewhere along the route.